Automating solutions for the gas sector
One of the gas sector´s objectives is to improve the monitoring, forecasting and operational processes of the different system agents involved, either daily or intraday operations in real time as well as information consolidation processes or anomalies detection. Grupo AIA has developed methodologies and tools to provide highly automated solutions and minimal calculation or output errors.
Grupo AIA implements solutions for the gas sector like data mining methodologies for business knowledge extraction from existing data and from its own forecasting methodologies for network management support.
- Short-term forecasting: Grupo AIA has developed its own forecasting methodologies, the symbolic forecasting based on states captures like Holt-Winters models. After 20 years´ experience in the sector and subsequent models updating, for several years now the models have been highly refined with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 2~4% (MAPE) for short-term forecasting.
- Long-term forecasting: specific short, medium and long-term forecasting models to give support on the Gas sector
- Data Mining: Grupo AIA uses mathematic and data mining tools for the extraction of information from These methodologies have allowed to analyze:
- Economic variables impact on consumption forecasting.
- Weather variables impact on consumption forecasting.
- Customers segmentation from consumption profiles.
CASOS DE ÉXITO
Grupo AIA has developed the VIKING gas demand forecasting system for Naturgy (former Gas Natural) and is constantly incorporating and adapting to new functionalities, algorithmic improvements, new regulatory laws and forecasting quality improvement.
